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Winston-Salem's Tallest Buildings and Skyscrapers
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 Post subject: Re: Population Trends
PostPosted: Sat Aug 14, 2021 10:08 am 
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Where are you seeing the Census results by city? I have been unable to find.


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 Post subject: Re: Population Trends
PostPosted: Sat Aug 14, 2021 10:36 am 
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Well, we can take some satisfaction that Winston kept pace with the same percentage growth rate as the state overall, with North Carolina being considered a high growth state. I believe some of the reasons that Forsyth is growing "somewhat" slower than Guilford is attributed to the fact that we are a geographically smaller county than Guilford and the urbanization patterns of Winston-Salem has produced a more pronounced spillover effect into neighboring Davidson & Davie Counties. If one would look at the numbers as to where those counties added their additional growth over the course of the last 20/25 years, I would bet is wholly concentrated into the townships that are adjacent to the Forsyth County line. Just as one example, the Bermuda Run/Advance area is essentially a Winston produced population base. Those large developments such as Bermuda Run, Oak Valley and Kinderton are the result of providing housing for the Camel City.


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 Post subject: Re: Population Trends
PostPosted: Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:02 pm 
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WSBornNBred wrote:
Where are you seeing the Census results by city? I have been unable to find.


Strangely enough, the city figures are hard to find. I found ours on the census.gov site; type "Winston-Salem, NC" into the search field and it is one of the results. I couldn't find a list of the nation's biggest cities ranked according to their 2020 population. Maybe they will publish that later.


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 Post subject: Re: Population Trends
PostPosted: Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:46 pm 
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It should be in your local newspaper. Again, it doesn't fit their narrative of suburbs and rural communities being great, so they didn't publish it. I found it in other cities' local papers, instantly, on the day of release! In many cases, the largest city or capitol city's paper listed all of the state's sizable cities, but in Raleigh and Charlotte they only see Raleigh, Durham, Cary, and Charlotte and nothing else exists in the state. I think they said names like Winston-Salem and Fayetteville, but didn't show the actual number. It was more about Durham officially becoming 4th and if not for that news, Winston-Salem likely wouldn't have appeared in the article.

Thankfully, this site was updated: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U ... population
This was updated this morning: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_m ... ical_areas

Metro Area: 675,966

It appears as if WSTB beat the local papers to this story, too! And the local papers should've had the numbers before anyone else. Usually, someone's local paper will accidentally leak the numbers early and you can search to see which paper made the mistake and if they have your city.

A big reason Guilford County grows so fast is High Point. Don't forget they have two of the state's top-ten largest cities. If you took away High Point, the numbers would look different. I think Greensboro and High Point border each other, so part of Greensboro's growth is likely due to High Point. I'm guessing they kept Randolph County from losing population? I think High Point also has a big impact on Davidson County, too! As High Point grows more into Forsyth County, you'll see it impact numbers here. I think they still have a business park with space for more tenants and they are approving higher density residential developments in the southeast part of Forsyth County. I think it's a pumping issue with water and sewer that favors High Point developing that end of Forsyth County, along I-74. I think it's easier and cheaper for High Point to expand water / sewer to that area than it is for Winston-Salem / Forsyth County?


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 Post subject: Re: Population Trends
PostPosted: Sat Aug 14, 2021 6:58 pm 
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Thanks! I exported the cities from Wikipedia into Excel and sorted by growth percentage. I’ll post some thoughts later on.


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 Post subject: Re: Population Trends
PostPosted: Sun Aug 15, 2021 6:40 am 
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Alright, I exported the top 100 cities in the US by population (2020), and sorted by largest to smallest growth by percentage (2010-2020). Here are some things I found interesting. It's not all Winston related, but I believe provides some context when looking at our growth.

[*] Irvine, CA is #1 in growth (44.87%), and is an outlier in the data (it's the only city above 30% pop growth, and it is well above 40%!).
[*] Detroit is #100 (-10.46%).
[*] NC Cities = #5 Durham (24.17%), #11 Charlotte (19.57%), #22 Raleigh (15.79%), #45 Greensboro (10.89%), #59 Winston-Salem (8.68%).
(Speaking of Durham, I drive through Durham often for work on the Durham Freeway (Hwy 147). Their growth has been clear for some time, and the data backs it up. I'm hopeful that once iQ Phase II starts, Salem Parkway will begin to look a lot like Durham Freeway).
[*] Cary, Apex, etc. are not listed since they are not top 100 cities, but I assume their growth outpaced the state by a large margin, and accounted for a large portion of the Wake Co. growth. Anecdotally, I know very few people that live in Raleigh - it seems like everyone in Cary, Apex, Morrisville or Pittsboro.

Here are the cities grouped with Winston at between 8-9% growth:

Pop in US | City | State | 2020 Pop. | 2010 Pop | Growth
9 Dallas  Texas 1,304,379 1,197,816 8.90%
89 Winston–Salem  North Carolina 249,545 229,617 8.68%
17 San Francisco  California 873,965 805,235 8.54%
92 Garland  Texas 246,018 226,876 8.44%
15 Indianapolis  Indiana 887,642 820,445 8.19%
88 Laredo  Texas 255,205 236,091 8.10%
7 San Antonio  Texas 1,434,625 1,327,407 8.08%

12 cities had negative population growth. Some names are not surprising (rust belt cities). Some were surprising to me, including Norfolk, VA (−1.98%), and Santa Ana, CA (−4.41%). Interestingly enough, Santa Ana is 8 miles from Irvine (#1) on the list. What's going on here?? We should probably chalk Irvine and Santa Ana up to a localized anomaly.

10 cities had 20+% growth, and were all relatively small cities (under 1MM population) and fairly geographically disbursed throughout the country, although the NE remains conspicuously absent. California, Texas, NC, Nevada, Washington, Arizona and Florida are all represented in the top 10. Austin (21.69%, 790,390 ->961,855) and Fort Worth (23.98%, 741,206 ->918,915) had the most impressive growth, in my opinion, when looking at percentage growth and raw growth. It's clear that Texas is a superstar growth state right now.

While primary markets didn't experience negative population growth, they did only experience slow-to-moderate growth.
1. NYC - 7.69%
2. LA - 2.80%
3. Chicago - 1.88% - If growth trends continue, Houston will overtake Chicago as #3 on the list sometime before 2050.


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 Post subject: Re: Population Trends
PostPosted: Sun Aug 15, 2021 9:45 am 
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I sorted the data by population size (2010) and pulled out similar sized cities to Winston (220K-240K). I then sorted again by growth to compare growth of like-sized cities. Note: Norfolk just fell outside this range at 242K. Keep in mind that they lost population over the decade.

We are in the bottom third of growth, with mean growth of these 11 cities at 14.7%.

City | State | Pop 2020 | Pop 2010 | Growth

Baton Rouge[s]  Louisiana 227,470 229,493 −0.88%
Laredo  Texas 255,205 236,091 8.10%
Garland  Texas 246,018 226,876 8.44%
Winston–Salem  North Carolina 249,545 229,617 8.68%
Glendale  Arizona 248,325 226,721 9.53%
Lubbock  Texas 257,141 229,573 12.01%
Chesapeake[m]  Virginia 249,422 222,209 12.25%
Madison  Wisconsin 269,840 233,209 15.71%
Chandler  Arizona 275,987 236,123 16.88%
Reno  Nevada 264,165 225,221 17.29%
Durham  North Carolina 283,506 228,330 24.17%
Orlando  Florida 307,573 238,300 29.07%

Let's look at the like-sized cities directly under and ahead of us in growth.

Garland, Texas - suburb of Dallas/Fort Worth. Connected to downtown Dallas via Blue Line rail. Per Wikipedia - "Garland has lost many of their major employers over the last few years. Raytheon moved to Richardson, Baylor Scott and White closed (but later opened as a VA hospital), L3 Technologies closed, as did many others."
Glendale, Arizona - suburb of Phoenix (9 miles from Phx). Home of State Farm Stadium (Fiesta Bowl, three Super Bowls have been played here). Air Force base in top employer.

----
In summary, my opinion is that our growth lags behind many of our peer cities. Certainly not unexpected, and there are other mid-sized cities struggling more than we are (i.e., Norfolk, Baton Rouge). And growth is complex, too - Durham is growing so much because of its partnership with Raleigh. Chandler is a suburb of Phoenix. Madison is a state capital. Reno has legalized gambling and borders California. Orlando has a metro pop of 2.6MM and really doesn't belong in this group. Et al.


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 Post subject: Re: Population Trends
PostPosted: Sun Aug 15, 2021 11:54 am 
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Thanks for slicing & dicing the numbers WSBornNBred! :tup: Your work does show the difficulty in truly evaluating population numbers in an accurate apples to apples comparison regarding economic growth. :thinking: Overall, we just seem to be a better situation than some of these numerical configurations would indicate, at least to me.


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 Post subject: Re: Population Trends
PostPosted: Sun Aug 15, 2021 12:07 pm 
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Thank you very much WSBornNBred for what is obviously a heap of work! I am really surprised at Baton Rouge losing population since it's a State capital, which alone is usually a development engine (though Raleigh was a late-bloomer, I reckon).


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 Post subject: Re: Population Trends
PostPosted: Mon Aug 16, 2021 12:40 am 
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Thanks WSBornNBred very interesting analysis! I guess the good news is that we’re still among the growing cities and that overall, the state is doing well. With the tech plans for Raleigh/Durham/Charlotte, their growth will continue to be much higher. Like someone else said, hopefully the build out of the IQ will give us a boost in growth. In Winston Salem persons under 18 are 23.8% versus 20.9% in Raleigh, 21.4% in Durham, and 23.7% in Charlotte and 21.8% for GSO. So we’re in good shape there. We just need to develop a job market where we can keep the talent here. We’re significantly lower in the category of college grads; WS – 34.5%, Ral – 50.9%, Dur – 49.6%, and CLT- 44.3%, GSO 38.2%. The category of Income and Poverty is where the real issue appears. Median household income: WS - $45,750, Ral - $67,266, Dur - $58,905, CLT - $62,817 GSO - $48,964. Also, % poverty: WS – 20.7%, Ral – 12.6%, Dur – 15.9%, CLT – 12.8% and GSO – 18.5%. https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/ ... /PST045219


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 Post subject: Re: Population Trends
PostPosted: Mon Aug 16, 2021 10:24 am 
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I don't find Winston-Salem's slow-to-moderate growth all that disturbing. What I do see shocking is that towns like Concord have leapfrogged the traditional cities in North Carolina of Asheville and Greenville. The peripheral towns surrounding the traditional population centers have enjoyed tremendous swelling in the last 20-30 years, including Clemmons, Lewisville, Advance, King and Kernersville. The people populating these towns were, and are, escaping the 'higher taxes' of the big city. Thankfully, the trend has reversed with so much construction of rental property, and people's desire to be nearer urban amenities.


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 Post subject: Re: Population Trends
PostPosted: Mon Aug 16, 2021 11:06 am 
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I’d probably prefer to see a tad higher growth rate, maybe around 1.2% per year, but a shade under 1% isn’t too bad. Honestly I have no desire to be in a city with 2.5%+ growth rates per year. Gets very difficult to manage that level of growth effectively and maintain a sense of identity. I think a little more than we got the past decade would be ideal and I believe we have positioned ourselves well to achieve that going forward.


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 Post subject: Re: Population Trends
PostPosted: Mon Aug 16, 2021 11:08 am 
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waggonera wrote:
Thanks WSBornNBred very interesting analysis! I guess the good news is that we’re still among the growing cities and that overall, the state is doing well. With the tech plans for Raleigh/Durham/Charlotte, their growth will continue to be much higher. Like someone else said, hopefully the build out of the IQ will give us a boost in growth. In Winston Salem persons under 18 are 23.8% versus 20.9% in Raleigh, 21.4% in Durham, and 23.7% in Charlotte and 21.8% for GSO. So we’re in good shape there. We just need to develop a job market where we can keep the talent here. We’re significantly lower in the category of college grads; WS – 34.5%, Ral – 50.9%, Dur – 49.6%, and CLT- 44.3%, GSO 38.2%. The category of Income and Poverty is where the real issue appears. Median household income: WS - $45,750, Ral - $67,266, Dur - $58,905, CLT - $62,817 GSO - $48,964. Also, % poverty: WS – 20.7%, Ral – 12.6%, Dur – 15.9%, CLT – 12.8% and GSO – 18.5%. https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/ ... /PST045219


Just curious, are those poverty rates measured in absolute dollars or are they indexed for cost of living?


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 Post subject: Re: Population Trends
PostPosted: Mon Aug 16, 2021 7:35 pm 
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BVR it seems like the numbers are adjusted for inflation, but not cost of living. So the rates wouldn't be adjusted for the differences in cost of living between the various cities. I'll continue to look for additional information and this is from the Census web site:

Following the Office of Management and Budget's (OMB) Statistical Policy Directive 14, the Census Bureau uses a set of money income thresholds that vary by family size and composition to determine who is in poverty. If a family's total income is less than the family's threshold, then that family and every individual in it is considered in poverty. The official poverty thresholds do not vary geographically, but they are updated for inflation using the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U). The official poverty definition uses money income before taxes and does not include capital gains or noncash benefits (such as public housing, Medicaid, and food stamps)."


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 Post subject: Re: Population Trends
PostPosted: Mon Aug 16, 2021 7:53 pm 
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For those who are interested, the "Center for The Study of Economic Mobility" at WSSU released the following study update this spring. The subject of the study is "Upward Economic Mobility Among Blacks, Whites, and Hispanics in Forsyth County, NC: A Descriptive Analysis"

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Forsyth County, NC is the third lowest ranked county in the United States for upward
economic mobility. A census tract-level correlational analysis is carried out on the mobility rates
for the three largest demographic groups in Forsyth County – blacks, whites, and Hispanics, and
various demographic, economic, and geographic variables. For blacks, mobility rates are the most
strongly correlated with the tract’s employment rate, for whites, rates are most strongly correlated
with the fraction of people that are college educated, and for Hispanics, the strongest correlate is
mean commute time to work. Population density is negatively correlated to black mobility rates,
while it is positively correlated to Hispanic mobility rates. Thus, mobility rates of certain groups
are sometimes correlated, with varying degrees of strength, to different variables. Hence, there is
not a “one size fits all” approach to understanding or promoting economic mobility.

https://www.wssu.edu/academics/colleges ... f_5_v2.pdf


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