WSTB

I think that’s Billy Prim’s house. Founder of Blue Rhino, Primo Water and managing partner of the WS Dash.

Forsyth County had the second largest percentage growth of the five largest NC counties during the pandemic year.

From 4/2020 - 7/2021, Growth Rates:
Wake Co: 1.8%
Forsyth Co: 0.8%
Meck Co: 0.6%
Durham Co: 0.4%
Guilford Co: 0.2%

Source, census.gov

**edited to add** Metro numbers are out now. W-S metro added 5,069 residents to reach 681,438. Someone double check my math, but I believe these growth numbers are accurate by metro area:
City | Pop. 2020 | Pop. 2021 | YOY
Raleigh 1,421,814 1,450,000 1.98%
Charlotte 2,668,619 2,700,000 1.18%
Winston-Salem 676369 681438 0.75%
Durham/CH 651192 654012 0.43%
GSO/High Point 776761 778848 0.27%

The county numbers are still accurate, I believe - Charlotte's growth, for instance, was driven by counties like Lancaster County, not Mecklenburg. Winston's growth was pretty much on par with Forsyth County's growth. Raleigh's growth is absolutely ridiculous, and probably teetering towards being dangerously high.

Some of us were waiting for these numbers (population increase and density), due to the housing and apartment market information we were seeing. At one point, Winston-Salem was at the top and other times it was just below Raleigh in the fight for people moving in the pandemic. Some developers spoke of developing years of lot inventory in just a few months. Some developers were buying a mansion or trying to buy an old strip mall or looking at "clean" but out-dated industrial buildings on large sites to demolish the mansion or strip mall or out-dated industrial structure and develop the large site for houses. Some were developing sites that would typically be seen as less attractive, like those in flood plains or under high-voltage power lines or sites that are difficult to access. You would also see developers demolish a house and divide that lot for one house into two or three houses. One developer cancelled a mixed-use development to build rental houses, which is growing in popularity in today's expensive housing market. All of it was what you would expect in a place like Austin, Nashville, or maybe Seattle, but not something many would expect to see in Winston-Salem. I think water and sewer expansion issues may have also led to some of this? I remember a neighborhood that was only half-built in 2007 and never completed was surprised when a developer showed-up ready to complete the other half of their neighborhood and there was nothing they (neighbors in the older completed half) could do to stop it. They actually thought that site would never be developed and I think some were told it wouldn't be developed? And look at the apartment market, with multiple buildings starting and others preparing to start and more on the way.

It would be interesting to know how many are people moving back home? There were a large number of people moving from Charlotte and Raleigh to Winston-Salem. Though much of that is thought to be from the CVB convincing them to visit on a day trip, with those visitors loving the city and wanting to move to Winston-Salem.

Raleigh seems to be becoming another Austin or Denver, where tech companies and large numbers of high-income tech workers move there and drive-up prices and population growth. This will likely push more growth toward the Triad? Charlotte is also becoming more expensive. Interestingly, my house in Atlanta appears to be worth twice what I paid for it in Summer 2007. If I was graduating from college and considering moving to Atlanta today, I don't know if I could afford it? It was known for being a cheap big city, but not anymore. Looks up at Google and Microsoft buildings... tech jobs. Looks at the Innovation Quarter... you're next, Winston-Salem.

I'm really interested in what is going on in Durham. Not only was their population growth relatively low during 20-21, but rents are also decreasing in some instances. Is Wake Co. (especially the suburbs) absorbing most of the Triangle's growth...?

"According to RentPath’s February 2022 Rent Report, Durham had the fifth largest decrease among the most populous cities in the U.S. in two-bedroom rent prices year-over-year for January, with a decrease of 14 percent to $1,434 a month. Meanwhile, one-bedroom rents in Durham saw just a 0.33 percent increase to $1,282.

But for Raleigh, two-bedroom rents jumped 31 percent to $1,741 a month while one-bedroom rents climbed 12.75 percent to $1,400."

https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/ne ... -fall.html

Also, look at Mecklenburg Co. on the map. It is a very light shade of green (slow growth) surrounded by darker shades of green on all sides (higher growth). Super interesting. Outside of Raleigh and Winston, it's the suburbs that appear to be the winners...

In fact, if you start in Wake County, head north and pass-through Durham, then East to Orange, Alamance, Guilford, Forsyth, then south all the way to Mecklenburg, looking at counties on both sides of you, the only counties in the path that saw slow growth were Mecklenburg, Guilford, Durham, and Orange. Counties that contain three of the four biggest cities in the state + Chapel Hill. All higher COL cities, with the exception of Guilford.

Will the trend reverse itself as cities open back up? Or, with hybrid work here to stay, and proximity to the office less of a factor, will these trends continue? It will be fascinating to follow over the next few years.

Interesting stats, but I think we have to really be skeptical of Census estimates for 2021, even more than usual. The US Census admits that it significantly undercounted the official 2020 count, especially with respect to certain demographics. 2021 was also a pandemic year typified by unusual moving and working patterns that may or may not be permanent. We won’t know how longterm the trends we are seeing during the pandemic are. Things may revert to normal after the pandemic becomes endemic.

You could be right. Here is another quote from the Charlotte Business Journal:

"In terms of counties, Mecklenburg's population over the year increased by 0.4% — nearly 4,000 people — to about 1.12 million, the bureau's estimates show. Its growth was driven by a natural increase, with births outpacing deaths by about 5,831. On the other hand, it saw a negative net migration of nearly 2,100 people. That was fueled by a drop in domestic migration of close to 4,300 people, while international migration increased by about 2,200 residents."

That is hard to imagine - that more people moved from Mecklenburg County than to Mecklenburg Count last year.

What is US Census going to do about its acknowledged serious undercount in 2020?

You should look into the 1870 Census, which is often viewed as the most inaccurate. I seem to remember hearing from somewhere that they (2020 numbers) aren't as far-off as people think? I seem to remember reading it's within the usual margin-of-error? It's the LatinX numbers that are believed to be under-counted. The estimates do become very questionable around mid-to-late decade. It doesn't matter if we think they are right or wrong, they are still the numbers everyone uses. If you think they are wrong (both decennial and estimates), your city can appeal it. I would like to see Winston-Salem appeal its count and try to get above 250,000. That is a cut-off for some lists and I think Winston-Salem could find enough missed people to reach that number, since this is the most LatinX big city in the state.

Interestingly, I've heard most of the people moving are conservatives wanting to leave big liberal cities. They want to move to a place where people think and vote like they do. With so many cities moving in a liberal direction, I've sometimes questioned if Winston-Salem would've benefited more from moving in a more "moderate" conservative direction to attract jobs and people. Maybe relaxed gun laws and relaxed COVID-19 restrictions, as examples. Republicans at the state-level would likely be more friendly toward projects here and maybe moving things here? However, usually, partisans will prefer extremes and not moderate stands. So, it may not have worked. I'm also thinking we would see extreme NIMBYism and NO votes on bonds, so that is likely a bad idea. You can look at the map I posted and find many of the big cities by looking for the population loss colors. You can find Nashville, Birmingham, Atlanta, Columbia, Chicago, Miami, Dallas, Seattle, Houston, Washington D.C., etc., by looking for the tints and shades of purple. I doubt conservatives would move back to liberal and high tax cities. It will be interesting to see if this leads to big cities becoming more liberal? Big cities will return, even if those moving away don't return. Many families likely would've moved-out of large cities with or without the pandemic. I think work-from-home allowed people who want to move back home (to the city/town where they grew-up) to do so. There are also people who moved to a large city for the job opportunities, but they prefer smaller cities. Work-from-home allows them to move to a smaller city and hybrid allows them to move to a neighboring smaller city within a hour or so of the office (there is talk Winston-Salem benefited from this, with most people moving to Winston-Salem from Charlotte and Raleigh?). There is also talk of startups feeling more free to leave bigger cities for smaller cities and I think Winston-Salem has benefited from this.

We know Charlotte moved past New York to take the top spot as the place people are moving to Winston-Salem from and those people moving from Charlotte to Winston-Salem make around $83,000+ in income. I've heard people in Winston-Salem talk as if those moving to Winston-Salem in this pandemic population boom are very wealthy compared to the locals. I would still like to know how many followed jobs to Charlotte and decided to move back during the pandemic. I guess we will never know?

That's an interesting thought, F&M. Anecdotally, I am seeing two different things right now that I suspect we will see play out over the next decade or so: introverts vs. extroverts and millennials vs. generation Z.

Those that are more extroverted, as well as those in generation Z, still prefer cities. They want to be close to the action. They want public transportation. They want to live in a high rise and return to the office.

Those that are introverted, and also a bit older (millennials) have started to move away from cities to the suburbs or even to rural areas. They have families, in many cases, and want more space and a yard. They want to continue to work from home in many cases, and want a house that has an office or multiple offices. They are the ones that are moving from places like Mecklenburg County to surrounding counties, or perhaps to mid-sized cities like Winston.

I think a lot of this has to do with where you were in life when the pandemic started. If you were a 21 years old and just out of college and were locked up by yourselves in your apartment, or at your parents' house, you are likely starving for human interaction and for cities. If you were 30 years old with a spouse and two kids, you likely want more space. You want a yard and a 2800 square foot house. Before the pandemic, you wanted a small bungalow close to the office, but now you are now working from home and are ok with moving further away from the office to get more space.

I think of the house I grew up in. It had three bedrooms and no office space. It was perfect for my parents, my brother, and myself - but it probably wouldn't have worked if my father worked from home. We would have needed a bigger house. And perhaps one that was a bit further from his office, if he only went in a few days a week.

I also look at my situation. Our house was perfect for us pre-pandemic, when both my wife and I worked in offices. Now she works from home 100% of the time and I will work from home 40-60% of the time moving forward, it is less than ideal. We are considering moving to a more rural area outside of the city. Pre-pandemic we valued proximity to downtown and to work. Now we value space. We are both fairly liberal, for what it's worth.

The absolute collapse of marriage and birthrates is likely not a shortterm or temporary trend. It’s likely to reshape our culture and demographics at least for the rest of the century. Hopefully, these cataclysmic death rates will not continue much longer. But the Nation may be approaching the negative population growth other Developed countries already have experienced.

Younger people in their 20s moving-into cities and people in their 30s/40s married with a kid or two moving-out was happening before the pandemic and it's expected. I do think some married Millennials with kids wanted to find some way to make downtown or major city life work, before COVID-19 pushed them out. It was inevitable, though. Downtowns and major cities haven't done much to encourage families to stay. And Generation-Z is waiting to take their place. We should also add empty-nester Boomers, too. I have heard there are many Boomers in downtown Winston-Salem apartments, which I'm sure surprises many. However, they have money, free time, no kids, and want to enjoy good food, art, pedestrian/bike infrastructure, they like yoga in the park, and the street festivals. As Boomers collect their "equity lottery" money from Millennials wanting a suburban house, some of them are looking at the maintenance-free downtown apartments and condominiums the Millennials are leaving behind. I think what will be new is this new generation of suburbanites will love downtown and will return often for a date night (when they can find someone to watch the kids) or to take the kids to festivals/arts events/sports. There is some talk that a lack of immigration and immigrants returning home resulted in a decline for our nation's cities?

Cities like Winston-Salem do offer sizable homes in the city limits with back yards and the walkability many Millennial families want. They often have the historic character Millennials want. I think this is why cities like Winston-Salem are seeing growth. I think many are buying these older homes and renovating and expanding them. Millennials moving out of major cities or downtown areas are looking for walkability. A buzz word often used to describe real estate in Winston-Salem. This city has a lot of nice neighborhoods!

Lauren and I looked at apartments close to work (Sandy Springs area) and apartments in Midtown, before we had Noah. Now, we plan to stay in our suburban house. I don't think I could do rural living. I grew-up in a somewhat rural area of ex-urban Asheville and I remember well pump issues, neighbors having to drill a new well, septic overflows / pumping, dirt/gravel roads, talking with the neighbors to regravel the road, the struggle to get high-speed internet or gas or street paving in the area, no sidewalks, the neighbors had ostriches/horses/cows, and don't forget the road washing-away and sometimes rutting. Narrow rural roads were also an issue during emergencies. Add to that the need to drive... I had to ask mom and then maybe dad to take me everywhere or get friends parents to do the driving. You'll also discover some businesses just don't go to or deliver outside certain areas. Asheville back then was also off the radar of chains, jobs were in medical or hospitality, the Civic Center couldn't host many events or minor league sports without major upgrades, and even the movie theatres seemed outdated. Greenville seemed like civilization. Things have changed now, but back then... I wanted to move to a big city. Actually, things changed when the sounds of nature were replaced with the sound of trucks and hammers, echoing through the mountain valleys, building new sprawl low-800s. The first thing you notice when moving from the rural mountains to a sizable city is... the loud sounds of nature are gone. Yes, I said loud (bugs, frogs, a stream, etc.). When I moved-away for college, it was actually quiet at night in Athens, GA.,. We have the light sound of trucks and a train in the distance in Johns Creek, GA.,... still quieter than the rural mountains at night. The sound of storms in the mountains is amazing, though.

I agree on the declining birthrates. With more people living in cities or suburbs, they are waiting longer to have kids and not having as many. You don't need 14 kids to run the farm. The farm is likely owned by a conglomerate. The impact on the economy should be interesting... I guess we are sort of seeing it now, with worker shortages, increased pay, and employers that have to give employees what they want (work-from-home) to keep them? I would also agree that people are getting married later in life or not at all and having kids later in life or not at all. I got married in my 20s, but we waited until our mid-30s before having a kid and we only want one.

- Year - Births - Deaths
2000 - 4,058,814 - 2,403,351
2007 - 4,316,234 - 2,423,712
2019 - 3,747,540 - 2,854,858
2020 - 3,613,647 - 3,389,100
2021 - 3,600,000 - 3,428,549

We need more immigration to bring these numbers up. I think Canada may have immigration where it's difficult to immigrate to and work in the trendy cities, like Montreal or Toronto or Vancouver, but it's much easier to immigrate to and work in places like Regina or Winnipeg or London or Windsor or maybe Edmonton? I think they did something like that, but I'm not 100% sure? I seem to remember hearing about it. It would be interesting to do something like that here, where it would be easier to immigrate to the Triad or Roanoke or Montgomery and difficult to immigrate to Washington D.C., or Atlanta or Dallas or Miami. It could lead to more employers locating here and make smaller cities more international.

Winston-Salem grew from 249,349 in July 2020 to 250,320 in July 2021, a rate of 0.39%, while Greensboro went from 297,808 to 298,263, a gain of 455 residents or 0.15%, according to the data. All of North Carolina’s five largest cities gained population, with all but Greensboro posting more than a third of a percentage point of growth.

Charlotte and Raleigh grew the most in terms of total population, followed by Durham, which grew by 0.40% to add 1,127 residents between July 2020 and July 2021, going from 284,400 to 285,527.

Regarding Durham, recall that the city is almost the entire county, which is very small.

I saw this and thought I would share it. These are the 100 largest cities ranked by percentage of population loss. So many large cities lost population that someone ranked them by how bad it was. Interestingly, Winston-Salem was in the top-30 fastest growing among the nation's 100 largest cities and grew more by percentage than Raleigh. I can remember seeing numbers showing Winston-Salem growing faster than Raleigh by percentage at that time. Of course Raleigh's size means they can grow more in actual people with a smaller growth percentage.